threat level remains the same, chance of attack is real

The risk of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands remains real, according to the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security. The threat level remains at 4 (substantial), the second highest category. A year ago, the threat level was increased from 3 to 4.

According to NCTV Aalbersberg, the threat of jihadism remains as high as ever. The war in Gaza is an “important driving factor”. Young people who sympathize with jihadism radicalize faster and more often online, he notes.

As an example of such an attack, the report mentions the incident at the Erasmus Bridge in Rotterdam on September 19. A 22-year-old man then attacked people with a knife, resulting in one death. The suspect is charged with murder with a terrorist motive. The NCTV also points to the sharp increase in the number of jihadist attacks and arrests elsewhere in Europe this year.

The rapid online radicalization of young people is an important factor in determining the threat level. Jihadist young people in particular come into contact online relatively easily with members of IS who try to tempt them to travel or commit an attack.

But there are also concerns about young people who sympathize with right-wing terrorist ideas. This year, several right-wing extremist groups have been founded. According to the NCTV, its members are more prepared to take action than before. Furthermore, there is not only online contact, but they also want to meet each other. Some turn to racially motivated violence.

Aalbersberg is concerned about the rapid online radicalization of young people. According to his report, there are probably several hundred young people in the Netherlands, sometimes as young as 14 years old, active in right-wing terrorist and jihadist online environments. Dozens of Dutch young people aged 12 to 20 are in the police’s sights after spreading terrorist propaganda, and some also for preparing attacks.

The NCTV’s warning for people who are released after a conviction for terrorism is striking. From next year, this may become more prevalent in the Netherlands, because people will be released with a higher threat profile than many convicts who have been released previously. This concerns, for example, people in Syria who have almost served their sentences.

The threat assessment also mentions radical sovereigns, people who believe that the government has no legitimate power over them and that they can decide for themselves whether they adhere to laws and rules. Eight people with that philosophy are being prosecuted for terrorist crimes.

The eight are suspected of participating in a terrorist organization and three of them are said to have intended to enter into a violent confrontation with local authorities. Weapons were found on several suspects. According to the NCTV, even after the arrests, there is still a threat from “the small group of sovereigns prepared to use violence”.